Do you really want an answer to that? In islamic theology, religious war is a constant state that lasts until everyone is subjugated (muslims and non-muslims, everyone), at which point the islamic messiah will come, the dead will rise, a last war will break out, and the world ends.
Until then, it's constant war (insofar that jihad means war. But that's not entirely true. Think of it more like "subjugating everyone by any means. Violence if necessary, but preferably just subjugation")
So no, jihad is not started or stopped. Specific missions are declared (like killing British authors for pointing out obvious contradictions in the quran, like allah having 3 man- and child-killing daughters)
So, what does that mean? Is Iran one of those regimes that fall when the leader is killed or is it one of those regimes that they just choose/install someone else and keep going? If it falls, will the democracy kick in or a civil war?
Excellent question - my understanding is that previous decapitation attacks were avoided due to the probability that the IRGC would take over as a simple dictatorship. Unclear what's changed now though.
Given the outcome in Venezuela (and Trumps relationships with dictators in generally), it don't seem like that is something Trump necessarily sees as a bad outcome. As long as the dictatorship trades oil and let some American companies in, they can be as dictatorial as they want.
My understanding is that the Iranian government is very resilient. The has been a succession plan since the 70s with a broad board of individuals who can choose the next leader.
Blowback is going to be the biggest issue here. Ali Khamenei wasn't just the leader of Iran, he was well respected for Shia muslims. While not perfectly analogous, it's close to killing the pope.
Maybe this leads to open revolt which might fully topple to government, that said, I don't think there's a US/Israel endorsed leader or goal for succession here.
It's my understanding that most ayatollahs get that title through political influence. And for Iran specifically, the supreme leader wouldn't have gotten his position without having that religious influence. It's a theocracy.
Iran is already a parliamentary democracy, the aspect that’s criticized is the fact that candidates must be approved by their religious council. The Ayatollah didn’t/doesn’t exercise direct executive control over the country, so his removal wouldn’t create an immediate leadership vacuum.
For as much as the far right in the US likes to criticize Iran, ultimately their only real complaint about their ‘theocracy with democratic characteristics’ is that it isn’t Christian.
I think you’re out to lunch on what the Iranian government has been doing. They’ve armed Islamic groups all over the Middle East, they armed the Houthis who have been shooting at civilian ships transiting through the straight of Hormuz, they’ve supplied Russia with the drones and arms for the Ukraine invasion, .. and the list goes on and on.
Yes, this is all true, but totally irrelevant to the question I was addressing.
Iran's system of government doesn't really directly relate to their geopolitical strategy. You can have the most awesome democratic system at home and commit absolutely evil atrocities abroad. Just ask Kissinger (or maybe Khamenei can ask him now?).
I was responding to your criticism of the American right wing only caring about religion. I’m not even American and i don’t follow the news and I’ve come across enough valid complaints about the regime that any one of any party would agree with.
"is the de facto head of state and the highest political and religious authority of Iran (above the president). The armed forces, judiciary, state radio and television, and other key government organizations such as the Guardian Council and Expediency Discernment Council are subject to the supreme leader."
Their government is structured to resist this. There are another 20K Mullah's that succeed in their place. I have no idea how much experience they have or how that works in detail. Most of them at the moment AFAIK are in underground bunkers. I'm waiting for news on those.
> one of those regimes that they just choose/install someone else and keep going
The council (50+ members) may elect another leader in his stead, provided the current council can hold on to their seats, which depends on a lot of factors.
> If it falls, will the democracy kick in or a civil war
If the previous Western policy for the region is any indicator, they'd prefer a monarch over democracy. Probably even civil war over democracy, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Iranian media is very quiet today (due to the blackout), but until they confirms this, then this is complete speculation and unconfirmed. We just don't know.
I'd take the Israeli media with a grain of salt and they can still fake this, just like the Iranian media can do as well given that AI exists, it's very easy to fake.
One side is not telling the truth. Only time will tell.
If the 86-year old leader is still alive one would imagine that he would want to offer reassurance and & encouragement to his supporters by making some kind of appearance.
I consider any claims this fundamentally unreliable because there's too much propaganda value in lying, especially during the opening phases of a war. I also don't consider Khamenei that significant; he's an important theocratic figure obviously but doesn't have the same kind of weight or charisma that his predecessor had.
Disagree about the first part. Israeli intel agencies have very deep roots in Iran, and could very quickly be humiliated if Khamenei popped up with a jeering rebuttal to their claim.
Israel also doesn't tend to report on major kills that didn't happen. It's one thing that they are fairly reliable on. If they say someone is dead, they likely are.
More relevant is who'll take his place, and whether they're better or worse.
Note that regime collapse, in a major petrostate with a population of 92 million and in the middle of a critical yet volatile region, can be worse than "the devil you know".
Korea, Vietnam, Iraq (I and II), Afghanistan, etc. were not technically wars in the sense that there was any form of formal declaration by congress. The U.S. constitution allocates the authority to declare war to congress but, in practice, it's been under the sole authority of the POTUS since long before Trump.
This reallocation of authority hasn't been a huge problem until now. Now you have a POTUS whose motives for starting a war are entirely suspect. It's true that negotiations between Iran and the U.S. would have had significant trust hurdles to overcome. The U.S. and Iran had a deal that granted Iran relief from economic sanctions in exchange for a halt to Iran's nuclear program. It was working, but Trump is the president who unilaterally broke that agreement in his previous term[1]. Trump has also repeatedly broken his own agreements in his current term. Even his own signature is now completely worthless. What would it have taken to assure Iran the U.S. could be trusted to honour its word with Trump in power?
Moreover, the timing of this war makes it hard to view as anything other than the bloodiest case of "Wag the Dog" of the modern era. Americans need to put this "president of peace" behind bars or he'll just keep starting wars. Once that's done, serious consideration should be given to restoring many of the powers the constitution allocates to congress, including the authority to declare war.
> Korea, Vietnam, Iraq (I and II), Afghanistan, etc. were not technically wars in the sense that there was any form of formal declaration by congress.
(1) A declaration of war is not necessary for a war to legally exist, except in the context of specific US laws that might rely on a declared state of war,
(2) Congress constitutional power to declare war is not dependent on the use of special words; every (conditional or unconditional) “authorization for the use of military force” (including the broad but time limited authorization in the War Powers Act) and similar is an application of the Constitutional power to declare war.
I just wish we'd apply this rule slightly more widely and didn't let countries get away with say - just as example - killing 20k children in Gaza. I guess you did say "generally".
Neither the US nor Europe would have cared about Hitler's mass murder as long as he kept it in Germany and didn't disrupt business, his antisemitism was not unusual, and he was generally popular in the US. Stalin got away with it. Mao Zedong got away with it, and his authoritarian regime is a nascent superpower. Pol Pot more or less got away with it. He was deposed by his own people and died in his sleep. Israel has killed tens of thousands Palestinians and the world did nothing to stop it, America funded it. Idi Amin murdered hundreds of thousands of people and died in luxury. How many Russians and Ukrainians has Putin and his invasion of Ukraine sent to the slaughterhouse? Do you think anything is going to happen to him? How many North Koreans have the Kims starved to death or executed? Repercussions for the Armenian genocide? None. History is replete leaders whom the "civilized world" let "get away with it."
Israel does not need a declaration of war to kill heads of state. Their targeted killing policy has been upheld by their own Supreme Court. Whether international law agrees is another matter.
The US has also done this since 1945 (at least) although executive orders have, at times, placed some restraint on the practice.
There’s a reason every POTUS has a Secret Service detail. So yeah, it’s been imagined. Presidents have been shot and killed before, and Trump himself was shot during the lead up to the most recent election.
Again, the Secret Service is there to protect against all threats and the US Military there for every single other threat above the Secret Service’s pay grade and scale.
It’s the most dangerous and most protected job in America no matter what the POTUS is actively doing at any and every single moment.
I think y’all are so quick to try and criticize everything around the President that you’re kinda missing my point:
Of course there are people that would love to target the POTUS. The Secret Service detail exists for a reason. That reason being that yeah, it’s an unsafe job, and having them there is how we prevent a foreign adversary from just walking right into the White House and doing what we did to Maduro.
Typo (not "pre"-> "after"). I am not aware of any case where a nation state openly assasinated the leader of another state in the more recent human affairs till WW2. I know of the attempts towards Castro, but apart from that?
We allow death threads for all kinds of celebrities and people with no relationship to tech. Out of all of the guidelines, this one is probably the most often quoted and the least consistently followed.
It's such an off timeline, where Israel can commit de facto genocide and there is no nato bombing like there was in Yugoslavia, and the USA, defenders of Ukraine's sovereignty, kidnap a state's leader and try to murder another state's leader, neither of which were a threat to the USA.
The board of peace means nothing, the USA cannot be trusted since it is a lapdog of Israel (did Epstein have something on somebody), and the president of peace starts his own war, hoping to outdo previous presidents in unprovoked murder and destruction.
All of the above gives Russia political ammunition to justify its SMO, and encourages China to step up its hopes to bring Taiwan back to the family.
And we have been told that AI and climate change are the biggest threats to humanity, ffs.
Going after the monsters that murdered thousands of Americans was entirely justified.
Russia's problem is that all their reasons for invading Ukraine, they made up. The very people Russia claims to have been 'saving', are the ones that they are disproportionately killing.
So the only thing you're actually interested in is arguing "Trump bad."
Iran's religious leadership has been sponsoring terror throughout the world for the last 40 years. Jimmy Carter was duped by the British into causing the rise of Shia Islam there. Khamenei and his leadership had escape locations prepared in Venezuela. The U.S. rolled those up first, nabbing the leader of a criminal cartel (Maduro) in the process. Now Israel and the U.S. have taken out Iran's oppressive "supreme leader" at a moment in history when the Iranian people are struggling for their own freedom.
Khamenei was a bad guy. Maduro is a bad guy. They've put evil and harm out into the world and you're wringing your hands about it because it was Trump that stopped them?
"By G'Quan, I can't recall the last time I was in a fight like that. No moral ambiguity, no .. hopeless battle against ancient and overwhelming forces. They were the bad guys, as you say, we were the good guys. And they made a very satisfying thump when they hit the floor." -- G'Kar
There is no benefit, and significant risk, in lying about that (it's an easily disproven claim if they're lying).
I don't trust them because I like them. I trust them because being truthful is in their best interest (and I trust they will always act in their own interest).
It is not in their best interest, since it's obvious that for at least a decade, blatantly lying and even being caught lying has no impact on their so-called credibility.
Lying about this does improve morale among troops and citizens, and gives them some form of early justification.
So no. They do benefit from lying about this.
They why haven't they done that in any previous round of attacks? The risk of loosing credibility and giving Iran the opportunity for a propaganda win significantly outweighs any benefit to lying about this.
Funny how the Americans/Israelis are still so enamoured with the Big-Bad-Boss military view of the world, they've killed so many Taliban leaders in the past that they (the Americans) ended up giving control of Afghanistan to the same Taliban.
The same goes for their (both the Americans' and the Israelis') obsession about Douhet and his Air Power thing, a long-running mistake on Americans' part. So much so that their (the Americans') bases in places like Manama (Bahrain) are now getting pounded by lousy Shaheed drones, with no AD to speak of, none at all. This is a huge fuck-up for the Americans/Israelis, I wonder when will their MSM start to write that reality down.
